Future harvesting pressure on European forests

We provide quantitative insight in the spatial distribution of the future supply of wood as a raw mate- rial from European forests (27 countries) until 2060. This supply is tested for two scenarios: ‘projection of histori- cal management’ and ‘new management trends’ and compared against a benchmark scenario. The new man- agement trends scenario incorporates inXuences of issues as nature-oriented management, carbon credits and 82 millionm3/year (compared to ‘projection of historical management’) because of increased demand for bio-energy. The results of these projections provide insight in the state of the European forests and indicate that under the ‘new management trends’ supply can still increase to 729 millionm3 by 2060 in Europe, whereby almost throughout Europe we allow harvest to be higher than increment for some time. Without linking countries dynamically through interna- tional trade, we identify regions where harvesting pres- sure is highest. Under the new management trends scenario, the harvested volume is reduced with stricter management con- straints. However, the management regimes as parame- terised here allow harvesting pressure to remain highest in Central Europe and some Scandinavian countries, notably Finland and Norway.